Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 19.196448 23.167754 27.567434 32.777283 38.750965 45.359012 53.193248
2025-03-30 13.056219 18.114100 24.332847 32.425845 42.554399 54.681552 70.156833
2025-04-06 10.388386 16.042348 23.558234 34.026333 47.945846 65.518295 89.039047
2025-04-13 7.378005 12.692921 20.322979 31.660017 47.603232 68.712844 98.180505
2025-04-20 6.031892 11.362746 19.515477 32.270656 51.006265 76.728321 113.778122
2025-04-27 5.074549 10.399295 19.025659 33.154509 54.707654 85.226813 130.360273
2025-05-04 4.369123 9.688578 18.775529 34.284585 58.745628 94.324719 148.143804
2025-05-11 3.721030 8.929888 18.304545 34.952267 62.051432 102.467716 164.892391
2025-05-18 3.060541 7.991378 17.364686 34.701652 63.835742 108.383514 178.616445
2025-05-25 2.421899 6.935551 16.034521 33.598342 64.098135 111.930677 188.915108
2025-06-01 1.987636 6.210940 15.200121 33.236262 65.484625 117.197865 201.936050
2025-06-08 1.544440 5.336113 13.916339 31.881653 65.036469 119.484801 210.418478
2025-06-15 1.352687 5.082871 13.957609 33.184890 69.565282 130.429825 233.583598
2025-06-22 1.065392 4.476885 13.140432 32.744686 71.017779 136.539076 249.608688
2025-06-29 0.948176 4.329829 13.334616 34.352185 76.295483 149.255599 276.737221
2025-07-06 0.659626 3.500768 11.724197 31.967207 73.891573 148.788538 282.374010
2025-07-13 0.553709 3.256152 11.522296 32.582576 77.239726 158.364386 304.920659
2025-07-20 0.474167 3.075185 11.451147 33.473272 81.174370 169.135561 329.860470
2025-07-27 0.413495 2.943290 11.488833 34.612046 85.670133 181.092792 357.227325
2025-08-03 0.349395 2.760076 11.340034 35.284841 89.248034 191.536198 382.360049
2025-08-10 0.276050 2.481138 10.839185 35.032309 90.870390 198.458257 401.636276
2025-08-17 0.202708 2.137272 10.042153 33.920527 90.564659 201.758783 414.669612
2025-08-24 0.156280 1.908705 9.562915 33.555656 91.821426 208.017777 433.107164